Håvard Hegre gives lecture on conflict forecasting

PRIO / Uppsala researcher Håvard Hegre speaks at GIGA about the future development of armed conflict

Håvard Hegre (PRIO / Uppsala University) will give a lecture on "The Future of Armed Conflict" at the GIGA Institute Hamburg. The lecture will take place on Tuesday, 13 January 2015. Professor Hegre's lecture is a cooperation of the ISP academic exchange program and GIGA's Research Program 2 "Violence and Security."


Scholars such as Steven Pinker and Azar Gat show that the world has become more peaceful over the most recent decades, centuries, and even millennia. May we expect this positive trend to continue? There are reasons for continued optimism, since several of the factors that are associated with peace are likely to continue to spread. I present a methodology for forecasting conflict in the future based on a statistical model of the relationship between various risk factors and war and a dynamic simulation model that allows weighting the impact of the various risk factors against each other.

Håvard Hegre
"The Future of Armed Conflict"
Tuesday, 13 January 2015, 13:00
Room 521
GIGA Institute Hamburg
Neuer Jungfernstieg 21
20354 Hamburg


Havard Hegre speaks on forecasting the development of armed conflict
13.01.2015 | | GIGA Institute Hamburg