PRIO / Uppsala University
Scholars such as Steven Pinker and Azar Gat show that the world has become more peaceful over the most recent decades, centuries, and even millennia. May we expect this positive trend to continue? There are reasons for continued optimism, sine several of the factors that are associated with peace are likely to continue to spread. I present a methodology for forecasting conflict in the future based on a statistical model of the relationship between various risk factors and war and a dynamic simulation model that allows weighting the impact of the various risk factors against each other.
Neuer Jungfernstieg 21 20354 Hamburg